TROPICAL TRACKER

ORLANDO, Fla. – The 2020 hurricane season rages on with no signs of slowing down as we approach the official end in 11 days. Iota slammed into Nicaragua as a strong category 4 hurricane just two weeks after Eta, also a category 4 hurricane devastated the country. Iota continued the already record-breaking streak of consecutive seasons with at least one category 5 hurricane. With Iota becoming a category 5 hurricane, the record has been extended to five straight seasons with a category 5 storm. Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, but the season could linger into December much like it did in 2005.

Prior to Eta, Florida had escaped an official landfall from a tropical system in 2020. Post Eta, Florida has seen two landfalls, both by the same storm. Eta will continue to pull away from Central Florida, but gusty winds will continue through early Friday. Theta became the 29th named storm of the season surpassing 28 named storms in 2005. Regardless hurricane season is not over and there is likely to be even more activity in the Atlantic, possibly carrying into December, after the official end to the season Nov. 30.

The storm is a shell of itself now, but is still bringing heavy rain to the mountainous regions of Central America. Regardless of where it goes, rain chances go up and the wind increases for Central Florida as onshore flow brings in tropical moisture to the state. Current forecasts have a tropical storm moving near Florida early next week. Impacts will be possible in Central Florida, but it’s too early to just what those impacts will be at this time. A similar stormHurricane Mitch in 1998In 1998, Hurricane Mitch devastated parts of Central America before re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico.

A whopping five named storms -- three hurricanes, two tropical storms -- have made landfall in Louisiana. In 2004, four storms (three hurricanes, one tropical storm) made landfall in Florida. A fifth storm, Hurricane Ivan, brought devastating impacts to the Florida panhandle, but officially made landfall in Alabama. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10. Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

ORLANDO, Fla. – There is still about five weeks to go until the official end of hurricane season and it can’t come soon enough. While the 2005 season to date was much more intense in terms of the quality of storms, 2020 is chasing down its quantity record. In 2005, the name Zeta was reached on the Greek Alphabet and 2005 also included a postseason storm, forming after the official end to hurricane season. None of those storms made landfall in the continental U.S., but Puerto Rico was impacted by Tropical Storm Olga in 2007. Going back to the start of record keeping in the late 1800s, only 31 storms of tropical storm force or stronger were active in December.

Another wave east of Bermuda has a chance to develop early next week as it gets pushed toward the Bahamas. Typically this time of year, the focus is on the Caribbean, as the Cabo Verde season -- storms rolling off of Africa -- slowly comes to a close. All major #hurricanes have formed in the central or western Caribbean. Large scale atmospheric conditions favor development in the Western Caribbean as we move into next week. Currently, there is not even a disturbance to pinpoint in that region, but given the conditions, thunderstorms appear likely in the Western Caribbean, and could eventually materialize into a tropical system.

The current forecast has the same areas that were devastated by Hurricane Laura in late August receiving another strike from Delta, a strong hurricane, on Friday. Delta rapidly intensified in the Western Caribbean going from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in just 30 hours. In a 24-hour period, Wilma’s wind speed increased a whopping 105 mph, from a tropical storm to a monster Category 5 hurricane. Water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico with the current forecast of Hurricane Delta. With that said, Delta could still strike the North Gulf Coast as a category 2 or 3 hurricane.

Since this pulse is a convective system, there is also a suppressed phase which helps to limit thunderstorm development necessary for tropical systems. These fronts can become the focal point for tropical system initiation. A weak tropical wave will interact with this stalled front and aid in the development of what could be the next tropical system. A second tropical wave will enter the Caribbean and have a chance to develop late in the first week of October or early in the second week. There is typically an uptick in tropical activity during this timeframe before the season gradually slows down.

ORLANDO, Fla. – For the first time in a very long time, there are no active tropical systems in the Atlantic. This break in the action may last through the end of September before tropical activity pics back up in October. The Western Caribbean has a lot of untapped energy for tropical systems to use. The darker the red and orange color in the map below represents the higher available energy for storms to use. Darker colors equal more available energy for tropical systems to use.

ORLANDO, Fla – Things have been crowded in the Atlantic lately and the storms currently spinning will soon have company. Two tropical waves, Invest 99L near Africa and Invest 90L in the Bay of Campeche, will be fighting for the last name of the 2020 hurricane season, Wilfred. An area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico is getting better organized and will likely get a name soon. This storm, likely getting the name Wilfred, will be stuck in between steering systems and may meander in the Gulf for a while. Tropical Depression 22 forms over the Gulf of Mexico (NHC)Tropical Depression 22:Tropical Depression 22 formed over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

The next name of the 2020 season would be PauletteAfter Nana and Omar were quickly named earlier in the week, Paulette will be the next named storm. After Labor Day 2019, we had 14 more storms before the season came to a close. What has been going on this season has been significant, but the season still isnt close to the benchmark season of 2005 in terms of intensity. That ended up not happening, but two waves off Africa could dance with one another in the coming days, depending on how they develop. This time around, however, development of the tropical waves emerging off Africa will be helped by that MJO we have been speaking of.

The situation was so dire Wednesday the National Hurricane Center called Lauras storm surge unsurvivable. Storm surge is the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities in the United States and the main reason evacuations are ordered by local officials. Lake Charles observations from Lake Charles Regional Airport from August 26-27, 2020 as Hurricane Laura made landfall along the Louisiana coast. ACE is calculated by using the intensity and duration of the storm once it reaches tropical storm status and is a better measure of how intense a storm season is than names alone. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

Tropical Depression 13 has the potential to either become Laura or Marco in the coming days. By the time 13 gets close to the island, it should be a tropical storm. Timing for Tropical Depression 13 would be early next week for Florida. Tropical Depression 14 could move into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Saharan dust and other detrimental factors for tropical development begin to go away and thunderstorm activity over the tropics tends to increase.

ORLANDO, Fla. As we talked about in last weeks edition of the Tropical Tracker, the Atlantic remains relatively unfavorable for tropical development. We do have Tropical Storm Josephine, but that is expected to run into dry air and shear and may dissipate all together. ACE is calculated by using the intensity and duration of the storm once it reaches tropical storm status. Current state of the Atlantic:Even though we have been on a record tear this season, storms, including hurricanes Isaias and Hanna, have had trouble intensifying. As we move toward the climatological peak of hurricane season, middle of August through early October, things that deter tropical development like the Saharan dust tend to go away.

Isaias becomes the earliest “I” storm on record beating out Irene of 2005. In fact, Isaias developed earlier than any eighth named storm prior to the 2020 season. The ninth named storm of the season typically doesn’t develop until Oct. 4. There has been higher degree of uncertainty with this storm because it had not developed a center until late Wednesday evening. August areas for tropical developmentThis is where the strongest storms of the season typically develop.

ORLANDO, Fla. – We've done it again this 2020 hurricane season and we will likely break another record before this week is over. Tropical Depression Eight could become Tropical Storm Hanna by the weekend bringing the potential for flooding to Texas. If Tropical Depression Eight does indeed strengthen into Tropical Storm Hanna, it would be the earliest eighth storm on record. Tracks and intensity of the 2005 hurricane season. Tropical development in the Central Atlantic, around where Gonzalo developed, prior to Aug. 1 is often a precursor to an active season.

While weak, it made history as the earliest fifth named storm of the season. Thursday afternoon, Tropical Storm Fay developed off of the Carolina Coast becoming the earliest 6th storm on record. If Fay develops it would become the earliest 6th named storm on record. 2005 hurricane season through 5th named storm. Colorado State University increases forecastTuesday, Colorado State University released its July forecast update for the hurricane season.