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Tropical Tracker: Storms lined up like ducks in the Atlantic

Paulette, Rene likely to be followed by 2 more storms near Africa

Satellite shows 6 storms in the Atlantic, two with names.
Satellite shows 6 storms in the Atlantic, two with names.

ORLANDO, Fla. – The peak of hurricane season is upon us and it’s definitely living up to its billing.

There are currently two named storms (Paulette and Rene) in the Atlantic, with another storm likely developing by the end of the week or weekend. The next named storm will be Sally.

There is yet another disturbance that will emerge from Africa later next week.

Paulette and Rene became the fastest to develop for their respective letters and that trend looks to continue over the coming days.

Development chances in the Atlantic. The percentage is for the chance it has to develop into a tropical system, not whether it will impact land.
Development chances in the Atlantic. The percentage is for the chance it has to develop into a tropical system, not whether it will impact land.

Atlantic steering currents

Steering across the basin is relatively weak at this time.

The Atlantic is currently being influenced by two areas of high pressure, one in the Eastern Atlantic, the other near the U.S.

A trough of low pressure is in the middle helping to create the two split areas of high pressure.

Atlantic steering through the end of the week
Atlantic steering through the end of the week

Rene

Rene will have room to strengthen further, but the storm likely won’t come close to the U.S.

Rene will be influenced by high pressure in the eastern Atlantic and get pulled north and back east. This could do a loop-de-loop and meander over the open waters of the Atlantic in the coming week or so.

Paulette

Paulette is not a threat to land in the short term, however, there is an outside chance that could change.

Paulette will be caught between the two high pressure systems and, therefore, will be moving slowly. That trough will try and lift Paulette north, but the slower it goes, the better chance the high pressure closer to the U.S. will have to move in and steer it further west.

Possible interactions with Rene, as it moves north, also complicate where Paulette will eventually go, but there is no threat to the U.S. over the next week. Beyond that, however, there is still a shot for U.S. impacts, albeit a small shot at this time.

Disturbance #3

This will be the one all land interests need to pay attention to.

This one has exited Africa much further south than Paulette and Rene and will have a much better shot at being pushed west toward the Lesser Antilles.

There is a wide range of outcomes with this disturbance, still about 10 days away from getting close to the Lesser Antilles, so there is a lot of time to watch. Outcomes from the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and something in the Bahamas are all on the table.

Disturbance #4

This area of low pressure is currently over the African continent. This disturbance will emerge off of Africa over the weekend. A new tropical depression could form early next week.

Disturbance #5

This disturbance is close to home, over the Bahamas, east of Florida, and is producing a disorganized cluster of showers and storms.

It will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to Florida, especially South Florida, over the weekend.

Its chance for tropical development comes after it passes Florida and enters the Gulf.

Disturbance # 6

A weak disturbance has developed off the Big Bend of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

Some development is possible as it moves away from Florida and heads toward Texas and Mexico. This is not a threat to Florida.

We have reached peak season and it’s important to be vigilant with anything that develops in the Atlantic.

Next week, there is a chance that we could have four named systems active at the same time in the Atlantic. The good thing is there is nothing imminent and we have a lot of time to watch.


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