Streak over? Tropical development unlikely before start of hurricane season

Hints of potential development in extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico after June 1


ORLANDO, Fla. – The seven-year streak could be coming to an end.

Since 2015, the Atlantic basin has seen a named tropical system develop prior to the official start of hurricane season on June 1. Pre-season development has continued every season since Subtropical Storm Ana started the stretch.

In 2022, however, it appears that streak may finally come to end.

Officially there is no new development expected over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Currently, all of the action is west of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane season in that part of the world began May 15. The first tropical depression in that basin is likely by the weekend.

Tropical development

Some of the moisture associated with that system may cross back into the Gulf of Mexico shortly after the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season, so that would be an area to watch in the early days of June for possible tropical development in the Atlantic basin as the environment becomes favorable.

Climatologically speaking, that’s exactly where we would look for early season development.

June development areas

There is no correlation between the date of the first named storm and how active or intense the remainder of the season will be.

The second busiest hurricane season on record, 2005, saw the first named storm develop on June 8.

2004 was another awful hurricane season, especially remembered by Floridians. The first named storm that season didn’t happen until July 31. In 1992, the first named storm of the season didn’t come until August. That was, of course, Andrew. No matter how few or many storms develop, remember this saying: It only takes one.

Earlier in the week, NOAA forecast another above-average hurricane season. Part of the reason hurricane seasons have been so active recently is that more storms are being named by the National Hurricane Center. Improving satellite technology is allowing meteorologists to identify storms that would not have been identified years ago.

Here are the other reasons forecasters are expecting another active hurricane season.

About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.