Eastern Pacific remains active while Atlantic stays quiet. Here’s when that may change

Tropical Atlantic could wake up last few days of July, early August

Saharan dust

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Atlantic hurricane season is off to a quiet start, but that is likely about to change.

The Eastern Pacific, on the other hand, has been cranking out storms since its season began in the middle of the May. That basin has already seen six named storms, including five hurricanes.

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One of those storms, Bonnie, originated in the Atlantic. It held together while crossing Central America so it retained its Atlantic name as it strengthened in the Pacific. That’s why there will be two “B” storms in that basin for 2022.

What may be the most eye-popping in the Eastern Pacific is the intensity of the storms. Those six storms—Agatha, Blas, Celia, Bonnie, Darby, and Estelle—have generated an ACE value of 63.2, more than double the seasonal average.

ACE stands for accumulated cyclone energy and is the measure of the energy used by a tropical system once it achieves tropical storm status. Additional storms are likely over the coming weeks before the Eastern Pacific settles down a bit.

Conversely, the Atlantic has seen three named storms—Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Those three storms have generated a combined ACE of 2.8, well below the seasonal average of 8.2. For perspective, last season to date, the Atlantic had an ACE of above 13.

Saharan dust and an unfavorable pattern for storms has ruled the Atlantic for the better part of the season thus far.

Atmospheric moisture

Later in the week, a tropical wave will introduce moisture to the dry, dusty air mass that is helping to make the deep tropics hostile.

The added moisture, combined with a favorable pattern for thunderstorms and climatology, should result in an increased potential for tropical development in the Atlantic from the last few days of July through the middle of August.

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About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.