Here’s how you should interpret rain chances on the 7 day forecast – The Fourth of July holiday weekend is coming up. You have big plans to hit the pool and grill outside.
So you dial up the free News 6 weather app to check the forecast and you see a daunting 70% chance for storms.
Now what? Do you cancel? Move things inside?
It’s important to understand what rain chances actually mean and how they impact you?
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Probability of precipitation
That’s the scientific term, but we’ll stick with the chance for rain. Simply put, the rain chance you see when you watch News 6 or open the news 6 weather app is the chance that you get wet that day or that hour.
If there is a 70% chance for rain that means that at any point of the day you have a 7/10 chance of getting wet. There is still a 30% chance you stay bone dry.
That may seem obvious, but there are common misconceptions when it comes to rain chances.
It doesn’t mean that it will rain 70% of the day. It also doesn’t mean that 70% of the area will see rain.
Believe it or not, there is a mathematical equation that does take into account areal coverage, but also forecaster confidence.
The equation above would give you the chance for rain if a meteorologist is forecasting for a specific location, say Walt Disney World, since the park isn’t going anywhere and the forecast becomes one point that won’t move.
The chance would actually increase a little if you were moving around the region.
If all of this is still confusing, which it is, just know that a higher percentage increases your likelihood of getting wet at a set time, whether it be an hour in your Pinpoint Weather app, or for the entire afternoon as a whole.
One more important thing to note: The percentage doesn’t take into account rainfall intensity or duration, so even if rain chances are low, it can still be extremely intense or last a while where it does fall.
The News 6 weather team aims to highlight where the highest rain chances will be at the most likely times to go deeper than just the percentage. All of this to say that a high chance for rain doesn’t necessarily mean your day is a total loss.