ORLANDO, Fla. – Today at 11 a.m., Colorado State University’s team of tropical meteorologists, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, released their August outlook for the remainder of the 2025 hurricane season. Right away, they’ve maintained their expectance of an above-average season overall.
I will also add immediately, this outlook comes with some of the highest skill over the previous forecasts we’ve broken down for you all dating back to April.
When we mention skill in the weather community, we’re implying confidence and accuracy in the data or the information being presented. Trying to forecast a season that begins in June and runs until November, in a month like April, has a drop off in overall “skill” because of the long-range period you’re looking at.
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However, when you issue a forecast INSIDE of a date and time frame, or within a couple days or a couple weeks, you naturally have a much better chance of nailing it or at least coming close.
Phil has emphasized in previous interviews we’ve had together that we have to focus a bit more on upcoming outlooks rather than strictly the April forecast. Most media outlets naturally gravitate toward the April prediction since it is the very first of the calendar year, sort of setting the tone for what’s ahead.
With their August release, they’ve carried the numbers from July over verbatim to what we see here now. They predict an additional 12 named storms to the four we’ve already observed now, including Tropical Storm Dexter.
Among those 12 extra storms, eight are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes, and three of those hurricanes are likely to strengthen into Category 3 status or higher, making them major hurricanes.
We’ve yet to see our first hurricane in the Atlantic to date. This could very well be changing over the next week or two, but we’ll save those details for a different story altogether.
I want to also add they’ve maintained their probabilities of a named storm, a hurricane, or even a major hurricane, coming within 50 miles of us in Central Florida. Right now, the odds are 89% greater than or equal to the possibility that at least a tropical storm passes close by. The odds of a hurricane giving us a close shave sit around 61%.
This is a stark reminder as we quickly approach the climatological peak of the season that you’re running out of time to have a plan in place if a storm does decide to throw us Floridians in its crosshairs. It’s much safer to have a plan blueprinted early versus improvising at the last minute.
Does a professional athlete wait a week or two before their big day to train and prepare? No, they’re getting ready year-round or, at a minimum, going through a training camp. Why should we treat a hurricane season any different?
We’ve built for you an abundance of critical and educational information on how you can equip your property, pets, and especially your loved ones before the storm heads our way. Click here for more.