ORLANDO, Fla. – We’re keeping a close eye on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
As of Thursday morning, the wave, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was designated by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 91L.
Invest is short for investigation. When an area of low pressure in the tropics is designated an Invest by the National Hurricane Center, computer forecasts on that specified entity can begin. The iconic spaghetti plots then become available to forecasters. This is the most important part when an area being watched is designated an Invest.
Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated, and the environment ahead looks primed for gradual development.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of formation over the next 48 hours, and an 90% chance over the next seven days.
Conditions are becoming more favorable, and this is a system we’ll need to watch closely through next week.
Forecast models are fairly consistent in showing this system drifting slowly west-northwest over the weekend.
As it organizes, it’s expected to pick up speed, possibly reaching the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.
Factors to Watch
Several factors will influence where this system eventually goes, especially next week.
One key player will be a dip in the jet stream over the U.S., which is the same setup bringing fall-like weather to parts of the country. The setup will likely help steer this area away from the Eastern Seaboard, but models differ on exactly when that northward turn happens.
Again, this system doesn’t yet have a name but if or when it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Gabrielle.
We’ll continue to monitor it closely and keep you updated as the track and development trends become clearer.