ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Jerry is our current named storm on the board moving rapidly west, northwest towards the upper Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Sea.
Other than Jerry, however, the Atlantic has been very tame and almost benign throughout the hurricane season so far.
There is some low-end potential for more storm formation over the coming weeks, but Climate Prediction Center emphasizes the chances could be higher than initially meets the eye. So I want to spend some time breaking down what we need to know as we continue through this month, and then the homestretch to Nov. 30.
Their latest Hazards product reveals a 40-60% chance of tropical depression formation (or higher) in the Western Caribbean and the lower Gulf, or better known as the Bay of Campeche.
While this is truly the hot zone we’ll typically investigate through the next several weeks, right now we’ve got some interesting factors that may work to limit what pops off close to home.
Coming up real soon, we’re going to see a huge dip in the polar jet stream. So much so, it will directly impact the state of Florida. The increasing flow over the state and the remainder of the southeast will start to develop a coastal low pressure center, helping yank additional cool, dry air from up north down through us and into the Gulf/Western Atlantic.
As that cool air continues south, the leading edge or the nose of the jet will also feel this and flow a bit further equatorward as well.
Tropical systems despise the jet stream, because it produces wind shear. Now, there are select instances where the jet can absolutely help tropical features, but I won’t get into the weeds there.
A large majority of the time, the jet acts to shear apart tropical thunderstorms, reducing formation chances of any tropical wave or tropical disturbance from organizing further and getting stronger.
Dry air is also an enormous limiting factor. It promotes sinking, and squashes thunderstorms as well – two negatives that will be quickly filling our pattern.
While the jet stream and our surface low pressure are doing all types of fall activities for us in the states, we have the Madden Julian Oscillation working eastward across the equator. So the Atlantic and the Caribbean are actually going to see improvements in terms of how good or not so good the environment will be for storms to pop up.
So we’re dueling between harsher conditions swooping south, and more favorable conditions try to meander northward and eastward.
Deeper into the month, we’ll start to see this cool, dry spell break down. That’s when I believe we’ll start to see increasing odds for another tropical storm or even a hurricane to form before the season begins to dead bolt the lock on the door of the 2025 season.
I’m looking at dates just beyond Oct. 17. Weak tropical waves will still be wandering westward through the basin, towards where our most favorable upper atmosphere conditions will be. If they make it far enough west, that’s when we’ll have to watch for something to quickly come together.
For now, the Gulf and the Caribbean should stay relatively quiet. Of course, if our models shift in another direction (which wouldn’t be too outlandish given their poor performance for much of this calendar year), we’ll immediately let you know.