ORLANDO, Fla. – BEFORE we go any further: I promise, this will just be a glance. I am actually using this article as a way to brainstorm myself with all of you while still communicating an early look at what I’m watching down the pike for calendar year 2026.
First of all, it’s almost hard to believe entirely we’re getting close to turning the page into a new year altogether. A new month, sure, time does tend to speed up as we get older they say.
I can’t fully wrap my mind around gearing up for a brand-spanking new year already! It feels like just yesterday I was talking Hurricane Melissa with you all, or attending the hurricane conference in New Orleans among many other big weather stories that took place through the course of 2025.
So today, I want to start a little prelude to New Year’s. As we compile our New Year resolutions, Mother Nature looks like she’s stacking the deck in a new direction that could begin as early as spring of next year.
Moving into the calendar start of this winter, we’re expecting things to remain predominantly mild, tame and dry.
We’re already slated to see a lot of this leading up to Christmas here very soon in Central Florida. While this is in part due to the way our jet stream winds are flowing across the lower 48, a lot hinges on water temperatures.
The one region I’m looking at very closely for next year are our ENSO regions, El Nino Southern Oscillation. This is the strip of water that extends from off the coast of Central and South America into the tropical Pacific till about the “International date line” or 180 west longitude.
These waters are incredibly important not only for hurricane seasonal forecasting but just overall seasonal forecasting during different parts of the year. It serves a role in influencing our local weather during the winter, spring, summer and fall, then back again pending what those water temperatures are doing.
Right now, we’ve seen yet another La Nina event emerge. This means waters are cooler than the average.
This results in increased sinking over the Pacific, and lift being forced over parts of the Atlantic and Indian oceans.
We also see a change in the way our jet stream behaves, since the jet responds very sensitively to temperature. The belt of winds are quite literally driven by upper level temperatures.
A La Nina winter and spring for Florida is pretty slow - lots of dry weather, and we don’t see as many frequent cold fronts come through. So if you’re hoping for a warmer than average Christmas and New Years Eve, you’re in luck!
Now, La Nina also tends to supplement the Atlantic hurricane season. 2025 didn’t play by these rules, which left a lot of us scratching our heads. We have some working theories I will save for another conversation maybe into the brand new year.
Next year, global computer models, both dynamical and statistical, suggest we’re about to turn the whole current equation upside down.
By summertime, we could see waters warm up to above average conditions in the tropical Pacific resulting in an El Nino reestablishing dominance just as we saw in 2023.
2023 was another abnormal year, as El Nino usually suppresses hurricane activity, yet we went on to produce the fourth most active in history. During the winter of 2023 into 2024, Central Florida was plagued by several strong cold fronts that spawn tornado outbreaks, severe thunderstorms, and very heavy rains.
That’s why I want to bring some of this to light now, before we potentially see some pretty dramatic swings as we move through next year. Kind of like setting up a weather New Year’s resolution now to track these changes through time.
El Nino could cause some sporty weather for us Floridians as early as next Spring. We’re anticipating the switch from cooler than average to warmer than average conditions to begin by about March or April.
That could mean a far wetter summertime, and yet another oddly behaving Atlantic hurricane season.
When it comes to next winter? Severe weather outbreaks and tornadoes could very well be on the table.
But like I said at the beginning, this is just a glance, or a tease at what’s ahead. Just know we’ve got your back as we watch all of these different variables start to adjust real-time. We’ll be the first to let you know how this influences your day to day coming soon.