ORLANDO, Fla. – The globe is gearing up for a major shift heading into the second half of 2026.
In its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is now “likely” to develop soon and continue through the upcoming winter season.
Right now, the Pacific Ocean remains in ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning ocean temperatures are close to average across the equatorial Pacific.
However, forecasters say warmer-than-average water below the ocean surface has continued building for months, which tends to be an early sign that El Niño could soon emerge.
NOAA now gives El Niño an 82% chance of developing between May and July, with a 96% chance it persists through the winter of 2026-27.
What it means for Florida
For Florida, El Niño can have major impacts on both hurricane season and the upcoming winter pattern.
During El Niño years, the Atlantic hurricane season is typically less active, with fewer named storms developing across the basin. Stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic often create more wind shear, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
However, a quieter season does not mean Florida is immune to impacts. Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Michael in 2018 both formed during El Niño years, proving it only takes one storm to create devastating impacts.
The stronger signal for Florida usually arrives during the cooler months.
El Niño winters often bring a more active southern jet stream across the Gulf Coast and Florida, helping steer additional moisture and storm systems into the state. This pattern typically leads to above-average rainfall during what is normally Florida’s dry season.
Long-range forecast models are already hinting that December and January could trend wetter than normal across Florida if El Niño fully develops and strengthens.
That wetter setup would likely reduce the risk for widespread drought conditions next dry season. It could also increase the chance for stronger storm systems and severe weather events during the winter and early spring months.
Forecasters stress there is still uncertainty regarding how strong this El Niño may become, but confidence continues growing that the pattern shift is underway.