ORLANDO, Fla. – The countdown to hurricane season is officially underway as the season begins next month.
Beginning Friday, the National Hurricane Center will start issuing its daily Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic Basin.
This product highlights areas in the tropics that could gradually develop over the next two to seven days.
While the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, the outlooks start about two weeks early because storms have developed before the “official” start date.
In recent years, several systems have formed during May, prompting forecasters to begin routine monitoring before the calendar flips to hurricane season. One of the most recent examples was 2020, when both Arthur and Bertha formed in May.
Although May storms are not common, early-season development usually occurs closer to home, where water temperatures are warmer, such as the Gulf or along the Southeast coast.
The Tropical Weather Outlook gives forecasters a way to flag clusters of thunderstorms or disturbed weather across the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf.
The outlook map highlights areas of potential development within the next two to seven days using color-coded areas: red for a high chance of development (greater than 60%), orange for a medium chance (40-60%), and yellow for a low chance (0-30%).
The product is typically issued four times per day during hurricane season, even when the tropics are quiet. If no development is expected, the outlook simply states that tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated.
CHANGES IN 2026
New this year, areas with little to no chance of tropical development will be shown with a gray “X” instead of a yellow “X” on the outlook map.
The change is designed to reduce confusion while still highlighting systems that could bring impacts like heavy rain or flooding, even if tropical development is unlikely.
The early start to outlook season also serves as a reminder that now is the time to review hurricane plans, check supplies, and make sure you are prepared for whatever the season has in store.