ORLANDO, Fla. – Ahead of the 2024 hurricane season, we told you about an experiment being conducted by the National Hurricane Center to better convey storm hazards that exist outside of the cone.
The cone is a critical component to tropical forecasts, but it doesn’t tell the whole story of an approaching storm.
News 6 meteorologist Jonathan Kegges has an update ahead of hurricane season on their efforts to better illustrate storm hazards.
We say it every year. Don’t just focus on the cone as that is just the forecast and uncertainty for the center of the storm and that life-threatening conditions extend well outside of the cone.
The cone is going to remain experimental in 2025, but you’re going to notice a tweak to it. In addition to that tweak, there’s also another subtle but critical adjustment.
“It opens up a discussion where people realize there’s a world beyond the cone,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome from last year, citing the need for the cone to evolve.
“I’m saying look at the cone and look at these components at the same time,” Rhome said.
The experimental maps were bright and bold, but did they work? Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, says yes.
“I think it was pretty successful, it was around for some of the bigger storms we had last year. Helene and especially Milton,” Brennan said.
Like last year, the experimental cone with inland watches and warnings will run side-by-side with the traditional and operational forecast cone for the 2025 season.
“The feedback was overall pretty positive. We did make one change this year to make it a little more clear on the legend that’s both pink and blue, which indicates a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch,” Brennan said.
While you may not notice it just by looking at the cone for the 2025 season, there’s another subtle change. The cone is a little skinnier all due to the forecast error getting smaller.
The Hurricane Katrina cone, for instance, and how wide that thing was in 2005 to now what you have standing next you.
“The forecast models we use to help guide our track forecast now are much better than they were 10 or 20 years ago,” Brennan said.
“Another big thing that’s changed is all of the aircraft data that is gathered by the Hurricane Hunters is not just used by the forecasters at NHC to see what the storm is doing, but all of that data gets ingested into the models and helps improve their track and intensity forecasts.”
Which highlights how critical behind-the-scenes research the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conducts can impact you when a storm is approaching.
It all comes down to impact. That’s what the NHC is all about, to protect the life and property and all of that intense research just boils down to you need to evacuate at this time, this is what the storm is going to do to you.
“Yeah it’s really all about outcomes and making sure people have the information they need to take the life safety information, actions to keep themselves safe,” Brennan said.
2024 was a remarkable year for hurricane forecasting. The NHC set records for the track forecast for all lead times last year.
Models are improving, new forecasting techniques are being born and that’s all because of government research.