ORLANDO, Fla. – We’re just days away from the start of the 2025 hurricane season, and as the final pre-season forecasts roll out it’s safe to say the potential for above average activity is fairly high.
We’ve had a few phantom or rogue tropical “signals” as they’re called in the tropics during the month of May. Some sources even claimed our first named storm could form before the calendar hits June 1, the official start of hurricane season.
In this case, I no longer believe we’re looking at a phantom storm or a ghost being generated by one or two particular computer models. Just about each of our global computer models that can look out far into the future are pinpointing a spot in the Caribbean we’ll need to monitor over the coming days.
Typically the GFS, the American model, falls victim to generating rogue major hurricanes when conditions are far from favorable for anything to spin in the Atlantic basin. This was what we witnessed happening during the middle portions of this month.
But, when looking at the upcoming scenario during the dates of June 8 to about June 17, the meteorological pieces for tropical development are expected to all come together. At least for a short period of time, then it’s a matter of whether the area can take advantage or forego doing anything more than building up showers and moisture.
The MJO is forecast to move into a favorable phase to help instigate better conditions for tropical formation in our Atlantic ocean. Especially closer to the Caribbean and the Central America region. Click here to read more about these phases in greater detail. The MJO was a primary contributor of quite a few storms last hurricane season, a few having come our way and ended up impacting Central Florida.
With the passage of the MJO helping to stimulate the environment, this time of year we typically see the generation of what’s called the “Central American Gyre,” or CAG for short.
Gyre is derived from Latin and Greek words symbolizing “circular motion.” It’s also used heavily in the field of oceanography. The Central American Gyre, as the name implies, means we start to see large-scale spin in a counter-clockwise direction overtop Central America. The MJO is usually a trigger of this, as it acts to disrupt our usual wind patterns across that whole area, which result in a dome of low pressure showing up.
The Gyre is usually most frequently seen during the back half of May and early June, then once again as we move toward the trailing end of the hurricane season in October and November. It can occur at different parts of the year but this is the trademark time frame where it’s most identifiable.
Why is this enormous spin important? Especially being so far away from us in Florida?
Since it is an area of low pressure, it helps to pull in clusters and small bundles of energy from its local environment. This could be a tropical disturbance, a tropical wave, or a full-fledged tropical cyclone even.
Last year, for example, Milton was a result of the gyre and a mashing of multiple pieces of energy. We had a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific pulled north. A tropical wave wandering through the Caribbean was picked up and ejected over the southwest Gulf. Lastly, we had a frontal boundary that sagged southward into the Gulf as well. The three were slammed together thanks to our Gyre and the MJO providing an extra nudge. That’s how major Hurricane Milton was spawn.
It looks like between June 5 and June 17 we’ll see the MJO align with our region, the development of what looks to be the gyre building over Central America, and we also have a few tropical waves coming across the Atlantic as we speak. The Eastern Pacific has already received its dose of MJO “pre-workout” and as a result we’ve got an invest area on the verge of becoming a named storm.
Our computer models and their associated ensembles are all beginning to highlight the possible presence of a tropical feature trying to further organize as a response to ingredients being mixed together in the bowl of all things tropics.
Now, a DISCLAIMER. We aren’t undoubtedly expecting a bonified tropical storm or a hurricane. The solutions on the table range from a sloppy, stretched out swath of tropical rains headed up into the southeast to a fully organized tropical storm OR even NOTHING at all because the Eastern Pacific hogs all the fun.
So, keep this in mind as we head through June, but other sources are examining this possibility as well to include Climate Prediction Center.
We’ll be watching closely during the first two weeks of June to see if any area of spin tries to take advantage of the favorable environment before we close up shop shortly thereafter at least for a little while.