ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight Invest 97L with a high chance for tropical development.
The disturbance, just west of the Cabo Verde islands, continues to organize as it moves west-northwestward through the eastern Atlantic.
There is a 90% chance for development over the next 48 hours and a 90% chance over the next week.
The next named storm of the 2025 hurricane season will be called Erin.
Model guidance suggests the storm will lift north of the Caribbean late this week.
Beyond that, some uncertainty creeps into the picture.
Most of the European ensembles safely bend the storm out to sea, but a few members take the storm through the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas.
The track is dependent on how and where the storm develops early in its life and the position of steering high pressure.
Model guidance does indicate a weakness in the steering ridge, which would allow the storm to lift northeast away from Florida.
If there were to be any impacts to the U.S. they wouldn’t occur for another seven to 10 days, so a lot can change with the environment.
Regardless, this storm is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season.
There are two other areas of interest tagged by the NHC.
A new area was highlighted off the coast of Nova Scotia in the subtropical Atlantic. Some tropical or subtropical characteristics are possible as the disturbance drifts over warm waters.
Development chances are 10%
Development chances continue to drop with Invest 96l meandering in the Central Atlantic, Development chances are at 10%.