ORLANDO, Fla. – The disturbance known as Invest 97L has organized into Tropical Storm Erin.
The storm, just west of the Cabo Verde islands, continues to move west near 20 mph on Monday through the eastern Atlantic.
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As of the 11 a.m. update, Erin has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It is expected to strengthen over the next several days.
Model guidance suggests Erin will lift north of the Caribbean later this week.
Beyond that, some uncertainty creeps into the picture.
Most of the European ensembles safely bend the storm out to sea, but a few take the storm through the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas.
The track is dependent on how and where the storm develops early in its life and the position of steering high pressure.
Model guidance does indicate a weakness in the steering ridge, which would allow the storm to lift northeast away from Florida.
If there were to be any impacts to the U.S., they wouldn’t occur for another seven to 10 days, so a lot can change with the environment.
Regardless, this storm is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 season.
The next three named storms will be called Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto.