ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Erin has shown little change in organization Tuesday morning, with a slight weakening overnight.
As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said Erin had sustained winds of about 45 mph, keeping it a tropical storm.
Track Forecast
Erin continues to move quickly westward at around 23 mph, guided by a strong high-pressure ridge to the north.
A general westward track is expected to continue for the next few days. It could become a hurricane by late Thursday.
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is slightly further south than previous ones and closely aligns with most major weather models, including the GFS and EURO.
Models do show a right turn eventually as Erin could find an escape route in a weak spot in a Bermuda high. This favored scenario would keep Erin away from the East Coast of the U.S.
Intensity Forecast
Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening, with warm ocean waters and low wind shear along Erin’s projected path. Although Erin has some dry air to get through on Tuesday, models suggest gradual strengthening.
The NHC forecast calls for Erin to gradually strengthen and possibly become a major hurricane within the next five days. However, confidence in the storm’s future intensity remains low at this range.
At this time, it is too early to determine if Erin will have any impacts on the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda or Florida and the east coast of the United States.