ORLANDO, Fla. – I’ll never say never when it comes to the weather, but a visit from Erin in Florida is unlikely.
I want to first be clear about something. I’m not suggesting Erin has a shot to come to Florida, however, social media has lit up the narrative that early model forecasts for the Erin and Irma were similar. Irma didn’t turn in 2017. The question asked is will Erin turn like models suggest.
There are differences in the models and steering between the two storms.
If you’re not familiar, Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys and then again on Marco Island in 2017.
Most forecasts had Irma making a turn before the Florida peninsula.
Models greatly underestimated the strength of the steering Bermuda high. The projection was for a much weaker high pressure system in the Central Atlantic ,which would have allowed for an escape out to sea.
Some members of the European ensemble did in fact catch on that the track could be more west than operational models were suggesting.
Ensemble forecasts are the best forecast model tools to look at early in a storm’s life. Different initial conditions are put into each member, allowing for data uncertainty.
Different conditions can be from state of atmosphere to strength of the steering.
With ensemble forecasting, we get a wide range of possibilities to keep in mind as the storm develops.
The graphic above shows all 51 members of the European ensembles from Sept. 1, 2017.
Note that while most of the members show a turn out to sea or an east coast Florida landfall, a handful did in fact have Irma moving through the Florida Straights and getting into the eastern Gulf.
Let’s get to Erin.
In the case of the current storm, while all of those lines that look like spaghetti thrown on a plate may look similar to that of Irma, they tell a completely different story.
Not one ensemble member shows a landfall in Florida. Just one gets close.
Erin will likely find a weakness in high pressure to its northeast.
That weakness combined with the storm getting strong north of the Caribbean will likely cause a recurve away from Florida.
It’s never 100% set in stone until the storm turns, of course, but models are much better than in 2017 and there was at least some indication back then that Irma was going to be a Florida storm.
In the case of Erin, there is none.