ORLANDO, Fla. – While all eyes remain on Hurricane Erin, the News 6 Weather Team is also keeping close watch on two more tropical waves that could develop in the Atlantic over the next 10 days.
Though still far from land, these systems are worth monitoring closely as models continue to shift and the peak of hurricane season approaches.
Tropical Wave near Leeward Islands
A broad area of showers and storms in the central tropical Atlantic is showing increasing signs of organization.
This wave is moving quickly westward at around 20 mph and is expected to approach the Leeward Islands by Friday. While the system remains disorganized for now, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend.
Given its projected path, this system could pose a threat to parts of the eastern Caribbean or even the U.S. mainland down the line, depending on how it evolves.
It’s too early to say exactly where it may go, but this is one to watch closely over the next week.
- Chance of formation in 48 hours: 10%
- Chance of formation in 7 days: 60%
Tropical Wave off African Coast
Further east, another wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is also producing a concentrated area of storms. It has a slightly better chance of organizing in the near term, as it moves westward at about 15 mph. However, conditions may become less favorable late this week, which could limit its ability to strengthen.
This system is still early in its life cycle, but given the time of year and the warm Atlantic waters, it will need to be monitored as it travels westward.
- Chance of formation in 48 hours: 30%
- Chance of formation in 7 days: 30%
We’re now entering the historically most active part of hurricane season, and long-range models often fluctuate in both intensity and track.
These two tropical waves could follow different paths depending on steering patterns and environmental factors, so even low-probability systems can become significant threats over time.
Should either of these disturbances develop into a named storm, the it will be called Fernand.