ORLANDO, Fla. – There’s growing attention on a developing tropical system in the eastern Atlantic, and it’s one to watch closely over the coming days.
A broad area of low pressure, currently labeled Invest 91L, is moving west across the central tropical Atlantic.
While it’s still disorganized as of Friday and upper-level winds are favorable for development, dry air will likely limit development over the next couple of days.
[VIDEO: Meteorologist Michelle Morgan gives tropical update]
Development chances for the system have dropped as of the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. update on Friday. The NHC is now giving the system a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next seven days.
A tropical depression could still form early next week as it moves west across the central tropical Atlantic.
On its current path, it is expected to near the Lesser Antilles by mid-to-late next week.
The next name on the list is Gabrielle.
Beware of Model Swings
Tropical model chatter is already buzzing on social media, and it’s easy to see why.
With hurricane season nearing its peak on Sept. 10, systems like this often spark early interest.
At this point, models will fluctuate significantly from run to run, as confidence down range remains low.
This slow-moving low will be heavily influenced by the surrounding steering patterns in the upper atmosphere. When those patterns change (even slightly), models respond with big swings like we are seeing.
Main Tropical Takeaways:
- Model uncertainty is high, and major shifts in projected tracks are likely over the coming days.
- Any potential impacts—if they occur—are still at least 10 to 12 days away.
This is a system worth monitoring closely, so stay informed and checked back through next week.