ORLANDO, Fla. – For the first time in a long while, National Hurricane Center had formation chances for a tropical wave slowly developing into a tropical disturbance at 90%. However, this same feature went on to fizzle out, entirely.
Even on satellite imagery Monday morning, there’s virtually no signs of it left in the deep tropics of the Atlantic.
What happened? Why was confidence so high, but yet here we are back to no tropical activity expected across the basin?
Right away, I want to emphasize; it may get a little frustrating for some to hear your favorite meteorologist repeat “possibly, potentially, maybe, could, should” and all the different words in between to echo the uncertainty in a forecast, but this is precisely why.
Nothing in weather, nothing in atmospheric science, is dealt in absolute. No matter how you slice it, no matter the amount of computer model agreement, ensemble members, satellite imagery, analysis data, whatever you want to put on the table, you cannot guarantee something in meteorology.
To me, that’s the beauty behind it. You’re always on a learning curve. You’re always having to retrace your steps and learn why a forecast was successful or maybe not so much.
Invest 91L attempting to develop into our next named storm was essentially “extra credit” being sought after by the Atlantic. We’re still beneath some pretty unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
A lot of it has to do with stability.
We aren’t expecting conditions to begin improving for tropical development until after Sept. 11. It could even be beyond this point, as computer models seem to be delaying the onset of the next passing of our famous Madden Julian Oscillation.
In the midst of trying to further get its act together, 91L was moving far too slow. It was caught within our intertropical convergence zone and southerly winds associated with the strong West Africa monsoon that is usually ongoing throughout the northern hemisphere summer.
This allowed a large blast of dry, continent air from Europe, as well as a new plume of Saharan Air, to catch up to it. As a result, the wave was, for all intents and purposes, erased from the game board. Think of it like in the first “Back to the Future” film when Doc looks at Marty and slowly says “erased, from existence...”
Despite being a near slam dunk forecast in terms of seeing our next named storm come to fruition, there was always a fail mode or two that could prevent this. Confidence was rather high, but there were also a lot of hurdles to be overcome. In this case, it looks like the hurdles won the battle.
These foul conditions for tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa are forecast to persist and always have been forecast to persist until the mid-to-latter sections of September into October.
The Pacific Ocean is taking advantage of the favorable set up provided by the MJO and as a result, major Hurricane Kiko has been smashing headlines for quite a considerable period of time now.
As I’ve mentioned time and time again, if you’re wondering whether or not this hurricane season is a “bust” (which is currently all over social media), we have to give it a little more time. To say a hurricane season is over before we’ve even hit the peak, per the calendar, is a treacherous bet.
While it does seem the pre-seasonal forecasts are in question, there are without a doubt more storms coming. With a La Niña beginning to manifest across the tropical Pacific and warmth still developing over the tropics of the Atlantic basin, we’re likely to see a pace similar to that of both last year and 2022.
The phrase “it only takes one” has never been more synonymous with a hurricane season. This is why it’s important we don’t focus on the numbers provided by a seasonal forecast but rather the over-arching message. Above-average? Could be more impacts.
Average? Could be your traditional amount of impacts.
Below-average? Lesser chances of impacts, but still a pretty decent potential.
Impact is your key takeaway.
We could have five named storms develop throughout a season. Sure, this is historically “below average,” but if all five make landfall as hurricanes, let alone major hurricanes, will you remember the season being below average?