ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday highlighted a new area in the Atlantic for possible tropical development as another tropical wave is forecast to roll off the coast of Africa later this week.
As of the 2 p.m. outlook, the NHC is tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle and two tropical waves behind it.
One tropical wave, near the Cabo Verde Islands and expected to continue on a westward path, is given a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and only a 20% for the next seven days.
Another tropical wave, already exhibiting great thunderstorm action as it traverses the western half of Africa, is on a course for splashdown in the next few days. It is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by Friday and has a low chance of development (20%) over the next seven days.
Models have already latched onto the potential this could also spin up into our next named storm if it can bob and weave past a few upcoming upper level lows coming down from the northeast Atlantic.
In the short-term, Gabrielle and these waves will have to fight off an onslaught of dry air and wind shear.
[WATCH BELOW: Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms in Atlantic]
Given the hostile conditions still in place across our tropical Atlantic, I fully agree with these percentages for the time being. It’s outside the seven-day window when this wave meanders far enough to the west it may try to get going.
Computer models are beginning to look a little more interesting as they adjust to the passage of our Madden Julian Oscillation.
In its most basic definition, the MJO is a wave that moves west to east across the tropics or along the equator over time. As it moves through, it helps to generate lift, moisture and tropical rains. It tends to revolve through its phases on a basis of 30 to sometimes 60 days, or one to two months. This should help to kickstart a few things out there across the Atlantic, sparking development over the coming weeks.
It’s far out in time, but there are some solutions that suggest both highlighted tropical waves could take a track toward the Caribbean. While Tropical Storm Gabrielle spins away from major landmasses altogether, these upcoming tropical waves will bear some monitoring.
Right now, we’re not tracking any immediate threat to our area of Central Florida, and there’s plenty of time to monitor the progression of everything out in the tropics.