ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Jerry formed on Tuesday in the Atlantic, becoming the 10th named storm of the season.
Jerry is located about 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph.
It is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane in a day of two, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system on satellite looks very impressive, with clear spiral banding around the center of circulation and good exhaust in the form of upper level clouds which is a clear indicator the system is going to strengthen.
There was no upgrade to tropical depression status, likely because of the organization achieved by prior Invest 95L during the overnight hours early Tuesday morning. Satellite derived data suggests we’ve already reached tropical storm strength and it is forecast to become our fifth hurricane of the season in just a few days.
Jerry is moving west near 24 mph. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.
It is not expected to have a direct impact on Florida.
There is a pretty clear discontinuity between our traditional global track models and the hurricane models. Most of our global models, like the GFS American model, and the Euro computer models, carry this system northeast of the islands.
The higher resolution HAFS models, the HWRF and the HMON, all suggest this could get a little too close for comfort and potentially directly impact the Leeward Islands before riding the weakness in our Atlantic high pressure northward.
National Hurricane Center mentions tropical storm if not hurricane watches could go valid by Tuesday night if track guidance continues to point toward impacts being felt by the islands.
There is still time for this forecast to change, as recon crews are scheduled to infiltrate the storm tomorrow. As of now, our hurricane models don’t have the critical observation data taken by flight crews when surveying a tropical system.
Down the road a ways, at the end of the current seven-day period, the storm turns its attention to Bermuda where it could make a very close pass to the immediate east of the island.
This year has proven an impactful season for Bermuda, having come close to feeling both Humberto and Imelda most recently, as well as a close pass from Tropical Storm Fernand a little over a month ago.
Meanwhile, in the southwestern Gulf, near the Yucatán Peninsula, a separate system is creating a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms affecting northern Guatemala, southeastern Mexico and nearby waters.
This system could drift into the Bay of Campeche later Tuesday, with only a small chance of development before it moves inland by mid-week.
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Still, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected in Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula over the next few days.
- Chance of formation in the next 48 hours: 10%
- Chance of formation in the next 7 days: 10%
Hurricane season runs through November.