ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Thursday tagged a tropical wave moving west through the Atlantic for potential development in the central Caribbean.
The NHC gives the wave a 20% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by this time next week.
Computer models are split on where the potential wave could go once it enters the Caribbean.
Regardless, interests in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should monitor its progress over the next seven days.
This scenario has a potentially high ceiling as well.
While the tropical wave can find its way into opportune environmental conditions to develop into a depression or tropical storm, if it were to time its forward progression correctly, it could easily become a hurricane.
There is still the potential it fizzles before it can really exploit the central Caribbean to its fullest.
I fully anticipate Hurricane Center takes its time increasing formation chances as we go through the weekend.
If model trends continue to hold as we get into early next week, then we will begin to see both the two-day chances and the seven-day chances incrementally climb.
Water temperatures are essentially untapped, and vertical wind shear remains weak. A pulse from the leftovers of our Madden Julian Oscillation is also forecast to wander west to east over the Caribbean Sea and provide the wave with a bit of “atmospheric encouragement.”
We’ll all want to watch this one closely approaching Halloween. Any time a system tries to organize inside a land-locked body of water, someone will likely receive it.
The next named storm will be called Melissa.
Hurricane season runs through November.