ORLANDO, Fla. – There are two areas being watched closely by the National Hurricane Center as we move deeper into October and closer to the final stretch of hurricane season.
Area No. 1: Tropical Wave
A broad tropical wave currently moving through the central Atlantic is becoming the main feature to watch in the tropics this week.
The disturbance is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms as it tracks west toward the Caribbean.
Gradual development is possible over the next several days as it brings heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend before entering the Caribbean Sea early to mid next week.
The NHC gives it a low 10% chance of development through 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next seven days.
Possible Scenarios
Once in the Caribbean, this wave will be one worth keeping a close eye on. There’s still a lot of uncertainty in how it will evolve, but several potential scenarios are on the table.
Scenario 1: If the disturbance organizes more quickly and strengthens as it enters the eastern Caribbean, it could turn north sooner, potentially curving toward the northeast Caribbean and remaining out to sea.
Scenario 2: If development takes longer and the system consolidates closer to Jamaica or the central Caribbean, it could strengthen and begin lifting north — a scenario that would bring it closer to the Bahamas or Florida by late October.
Scenario 3: However, if the wave struggles to organize at all, it will likely stay weak and continue west toward Central America without posing much threat beyond heavy rain.
All in all, it’s too early to know exactly how it will evolve, but this serves as an important reminder that hurricane season continues through the end of November. Keep checking back for updates as the system makes its way west.
Area No. 2: Non-Tropical Low
Meanwhile, further north in the Atlantic, a non-tropical low is forming several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia.
This system could briefly acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics as it drifts over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream northeast of Bermuda this weekend.
However, by early next week, it’s expected to move into colder waters, ending its window for development.