ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at Colorado State University on Thursday released their prediction for the 2026 hurricane season.
The university expects 13 named storms, six of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with two of those becoming major (at least Category 3 and 111 mph winds).
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.”
Usually, El Niño tends to favor a less active season across the Atlantic Basin due to an increase in vertical wind shear in this zone. The stronger the shear, the less opportunity storms have to develop.
This could be especially the case as the latest models predict one of the strongest El Niños on record to develop near the typical peak of hurricane season.
When it comes to the latest sea-surface temperatures across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said that the “waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while they are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic.”
This setup is sending mixed signals for the upcoming hurricane season.
An average season consists of 14 named storms, seven becoming hurricanes, and three becoming major. While rarely impacted by landfalling tropical systems, CSU is widely respected in tropical meteorology.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026, with a 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average is 21%), and a 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Texas (average is 27%).
For Florida specifically, the university is forecasting a 74% (86% average) chance for a named storm to get within 50 miles of the Sunshine State. They are forecasting a 43% (56% average) chance for a hurricane and a 21% (29% average) chance for a major hurricane to do that.
It’s important to note that even in a “slow” hurricane season, it only takes one storm to make it a bad year, and it is always important to be prepared.
A powerful reminder is in 1992, when Hurricane Andrew (the first named storm of the season) formed in late August. Despite an otherwise quiet year, Andrew rapidly intensified into a compact but catastrophic Category 5 storm, tearing through South Florida and leaving a lasting mark on the Sunshine State.
In the era of better satellite technology to name storms out at sea, it is more important for these seasonal outlooks to pay closer attention to the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forecast.
NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will release outlooks in late May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1.