ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida is adding 1,000 new residents every day, according to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, also known as BEBR.
News 6 found out the group is contracted by the state of Florida to tell every city and county how many people they need to account for in the coming decades.
News 6 anchor Matt Austin found out these cities and counties must then follow state guidelines based on these projections.
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The researchers, based at the University of Florida in Gainesville, do population estimates every year. They also produce population projections out to the year 2050.
“We have been doing the official population estimates and projections for the state of Florida since the 70’s,” said Richard Doty, GIS Coordinator and Research Demographer with BEBR.
According to Doty, the state pays BEBR under $350,0000 to do this. Doty is one of four researchers tasked with crunching the numbers for all 67 Florida counties.
“If you spend any time driving up and down I-4, it’s probably no surprise to you that the I-4 corridor is exploding. There is tremendous growth in Orange, Osceola, Polk. I think Polk has led the state in terms of numeric growth since 2020,” said Doty.
Doty said other parts of Central Florida are also seeing a population boom, “Western Volusia in particular, Seminole, you know, there’s limited land available actually in Seminole, but there’s a lot of redevelopment occurring, particularly along the major corridors and that’s increasing residential densities.”
2024 Population Estimates
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
| County | Population Estimate April 1, 2024 | Population Change 2020-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Brevard | 653,703 | 47,091 |
| Flagler | 136,310 | 20,932 |
| Lake | 433,331 | 49,375 |
| Marion | 419,510 | 43,602 |
| Orange | 1,511,568 | 81,660 |
| Osceola | 451,231 | 62,575 |
| Seminole | 493,282 | 22,426 |
| Sumter | 156,743 | 26,991 |
| Volusia | 594,643 | 41,100 |
Find population estimates by city here.
County-by-county Population Projections
Based on 2023 estimates from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research
| Brevard County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 625,100 | 619,200 | 600,100 |
| Medium | 694,600 | 748,300 | 784,500 |
| High | 764,100 | 877,400 | 968,800 |
| Flagler County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 133,000 | 138,500 | 136,600 |
| Medium | 152,900 | 178,100 | 196,600 |
| High | 172,700 | 217,800 | 256,500 |
| Lake County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 423,500 | 434,700 | 430,100 |
| Medium | 478,500 | 541,700 | 589,200 |
| High | 533,500 | 648,700 | 748,300 |
| Marion County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 401,800 | 406,800 | 402,800 |
| Medium | 446,400 | 491,700 | 526,500 |
| High | 491,000 | 576,500 | 650,300 |
| Orange County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 1,497,700 | 1,510,700 | 1,479,200 |
| Medium | 1,664,100 | 1,825,600 | 1,933,600 |
| High | 1,830,500 | 2,140,500 | 2,388,000 |
| Osceola County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 470,500 | 500,600 | 507,300 |
| Medium | 531,600 | 623,800 | 695,000 |
| High | 592,800 | 747,000 | 882,600 |
| Polk County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 817,400 | 845,700 | 844,100 |
| Medium | 908,200 | 1,022,000 | 1,103,400 |
| High | 999,000 | 1,198,400 | 1,362,700 |
| Seminole County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 475,900 | 468,600 | 455,200 |
| Medium | 520,200 | 549,700 | 569,000 |
| High | 564,400 | 630,800 | 682,800 |
| Sumter County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 165,900 | 176,800 | 178,000 |
| Medium | 190,700 | 227,400 | 256,100 |
| High | 215,500 | 278,000 | 334,100 |
| Volusia County | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 567,800 | 561,500 | 543,100 |
| Medium | 630,900 | 678,600 | 709,900 |
| High | 694,000 | 795,600 | 876,700 |
The U.S. Census Bureau gets its annual population data from birth, death and migration rates. BEBR gets most of its data from all 53 electrical utility companies in Florida. Companies like Duke Energy and FPL tell BEBR how many people have turned their power on and off.
“We’ve learned over the years that that is the best source of estimating the change in occupied housing units in the state,” said Doty, “we think the reason our estimates have performed so well historically is because we have that data and the Census Bureau does not and none of the other states use it.”
BEBR also gets housing data from building permits, homestead exemptions and information from property appraisers.
According to Doty, there are cities and counties that challenge BEBR’s population estimates.
“There are times where our data didn’t capture something, an annexation, for example, wasn’t reported to the electrical utilities and so they didn’t have that,” said Doty, “there are times where we do make adjustments, but those are usually very small and very infrequent.”