Please tell me you know what the title is from! If you don’t you must watch this short clip from Saturday Night Live before proceeding to read this.
This is classic Chris Farley, but when he says ‘All other tropical storms must bow before El Niño, he wasn’t wrong. Well, on the Atlantic side anyway.
Recommended Videos
It was just last week we had two tropical waves highlighted east of the Caribbean. One had a medium chance. One had a chance. Neither of them developed.
We talked about this in last week’s newsletter. The model signal was bullish, but the Atlantic did not seem supportive.
Dry air and strong wind shear induced by El Niño, tore these storms apart.
The other thing that has plagued the Atlantic (thankfully) for years has been stability.
Storms need instability, cooler air on top of warmer air.
There hasn’t been much of that.
Take a look at this graph.
The blue line, current instability is way below the black line, average instability.
Basically this shows us that any tropical wave that rolls off Africa will face a decent amount of resistance.
The Google DeepMind ensembles over the next ten days suggest that some development is possible with new waves rolling off Africa.
At this point I will believe it when I see it. If a storm is going to develop and strengthen it will likely need to get itself into the subtropics near Bermuda to have any shot.
Always watching, of course!
For the Pacific side, El Niño supercharges storms. While Hawaii missed an official landfall from Hurricane Lala, the southern tip of the Big Island took the eyewall, the strongest part of the storm.
A whopping 43″ of rain fell on the windward side of Mauna Kea.
At the summit, nearly 14,000 feet up, a wind gust of 140mph was recorded.
There was a time, since it’s at elevation, that snow was falling on the summit. Truly extreme conditions.
Only one time in recorded history, and the report is sketchy from back in the 1800s, has a hurricane made landfall on the Big Island.
At least three more storms are forecast on the Pacific side over the next ten days.
Any questions feel free to hit me up at jkegges@wkmg.com
- Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 1st at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
News 6 Weather App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.