2022 hurricane season expected to be busy for Florida

Colorado State University forecasts an above average season

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Tuesday, July 6, 2021, at 5:50 p.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Tropical Storm Elsa in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Elsa is strengthening and could became a hurricane before making landfall along Florida's north Gulf coast. In addition to damaging winds and heavy rains, the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of life-threatening storm surges, flooding and isolated tornadoes, (NOAA via AP) (Uncredited)

ORLANDO, Fla. – We are less than two months away from the start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. On Thursday, Colorado State University released their first long range forecast on what we could expect from June 1 through November 30.

By the looks of it, Florida could be a hurricane hotspot compared to the rest of the coastal states.

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For 2022, CSU forecasters are calling for another above-average Atlantic hurricane season, a trend we have seen over the last four decades. Their numbers show 19 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes and four gaining major hurricane strength.

This runs well above the average of 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major storms. These new numbers show a less active season than the past two years.

CSU forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season - April

Factoring in a weaker La Niña pattern and warmer than average water temperatures, scientists at CSU anticipate “an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

But it is Florida where the lead is taken for chances of landfalling storms this season.

CSU probability forecast for landfalling storms for Florida.

The forecast calls for a 96% chance of a named storm impacting Florida, a 75% chance for a hurricane (category 1-2) and a 44% chance for a major hurricane near or making landfall in Florida. These numbers are higher than what was projected for Florida in the 2021 season.

The Sunshine State sees the highest probability in all three categories compared to the rest of the U.S. coastline.

It is never too early to start making your hurricane plans and tackling your hurricane supply checklist. Click here to visit our hurricane page, where you can find everything you need to know before, during and after a storm.


About the Author:

Candace joined the News 6 team as the weekend morning meteorologist and reporter. She comes to Central Florida from Miami.