Colorado State University increases 2022 hurricane season forecast

University upped pre-season forecast

Hurricane (Pixabay)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at Colorado State University have increased the number of named storms since their pre-season forecast in April.

The university is now calling for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

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CSU Forecast

Each category has increased by one from the April release. That may not seem like a lot, however in addition to the number of storms increasing, the forecast ACE has also significantly increased.

Ace forecast

ACE stands for accumulated cyclone energy and is the true measure of how intense a hurricane season is. ACE measures the energy used by a tropical system during its lifetime.

ACE

For perspective, 2021 finished with an ACE of 145.7. And 2020 finished with an ACE of 179.8. The most active season in terms of ACE in recent memory was 2005, finishing with a value 245.3.

2020 had more named storms than 2005, but the storms overall in 2005 were more intense, giving that season a much higher ACE.

Even though the ACE for the 2022 season is forecast to be even higher, it does not mean that that particular storm or storms would impact land.

For example during the 2021 hurricane season, Category 4 Sam became an extremely powerful Category 4 storm, but remained over the open waters of the Atlantic. It’s high ACE value increased seasonal ACE number without ever impacting land.

The increased confidence in the likely lack of El Nino during the summer and fall is the reason for the increased forecast.

The next update from CSU will be in August, prior to the peak of hurricane season. Hurricane season runs until Nov 30.


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.