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Tropical activity could help bust Florida’s historic drought. Here’s when

Tropical moisture to surge into Sunshine State

ORLANDO, Fla. – Models are picking up on tropical signals over the upcoming week that could bring much needed rain to Florida heading into late May and early June.

While the National Hurricane Center has not highlighted anything of potential development yet, long range models continue hinting at a favorable setup for tropical moisture and even possibly some minimal development near the Gulf by the end of May and early June.

Tropical models signaling possible low developing in the Gulf

Confidence remains low on whether anything organized actually forms, but confidence is increasing that a deep surge of tropical moisture will move into Florida late next week.

Atmospheric Moisture Map

Some forecast models suggest parts of the state could pick up an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain through the first week of June. Even without tropical development, this setup could bring several days of widespread rain and storms.

EURO Model: Rainfall

This wetter pattern would be welcome news for a state dealing with its worst drought conditions in more than 25 years, along with expanding burn bans.

Drought Update 5/21/26

Forecast details will continue to change over the coming days, especially regarding any potential tropical development. But for now, the signal for a much wetter pattern heading into June is becoming more noticeable.

Stay with the News 6 weather team for updates as confidence in the forecast improves.