ORLANDO, Fla. – The Atlantic hurricane season continues to show signs of life, and with the climatological peak just weeks away, now’s the time to pay close attention.
Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday continues its westward journey across the central Atlantic, while a few other areas are also showing limited potential for development.
Tropical Storm Erin
Erin is currently spinning in the central tropical Atlantic and struggling a bit to organize.
Wind shear from the east and dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are keeping the storm from gaining much strength, keeping sustained winds around 45 mph for the next few days.
However, conditions are expected to improve by late week with Erin.
Most forecast models agree that Erin could become a hurricane by the weekend, making it the first one of the 2025 season.
Erin is moving west and will likely begin to turn slightly more north in a couple of days as a Bermuda High to its north begins to weaken.
This potential turn in the track is something we will be closely watching closely.
The current forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center keeps Erin on the southern side of the latest model runs, bringing the soon-to-be hurricane close to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the weekend.
It’s too soon to say how strong the storm will be at that point or exactly how close it will get, but these areas should stay alert and monitor the forecast closely.
Many models show Erin finding a weakness in the ridge, allowing the storm to bend away from U.S., but at this point that is not a guarantee.
Make sure to stay up to date through the weekend.
Elsewhere in Tropics
In the southwestern Gulf, a tropical wave currently moving across the Yucatán Peninsula is producing scattered showers and storms.
There’s a small chance it could develop into something more organized once it moves into the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche later this week. For now, development chances remain low -- 10% over the next two days and 20% over the next week.
In the northwestern Atlantic, a non-tropical low-pressure system is still spinning a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia.
While it’s tapping into the Gulf Stream’s warmer waters and producing some thunderstorms, it’s likely too far north for tropical development to take hold. It will move over cooler waters by Wednesday night, ending any development chances.