ORLANDO, Fla. – The heat this week has been relentless.
Central Florida has been baking under dangerous heat indices up to 110 degrees, prompting daily heat advisories and sending many of us inside for air conditioning.
But while the sweltering conditions feel like a local issue, it’s actually part of a much larger atmospheric setup, one that will play a big role in the future path of Erin.
The Heat: Powered by Stubborn High
A sprawling ridge of high pressure sitting over the Southeast U.S. and western Atlantic is the main driver of this week’s brutal heat in Central Florida. The high, which acts like a lid on top of a boiling pot of water, traps heat and moisture near the surface.
Erin: Hurricane Looking for Path
Meanwhile, far out in the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erin continues to gain strength and is expected to become a major hurricane over the coming days. Right now, Erin is being steered west-northwest by the very same high-pressure system roasting Florida.
So how are these connected? Think of the high as both heat source and traffic cop, keeping us hot and influencing where Erin goes next.
Turning Point: Relief and Redirection
Here’s where things get interesting and hopeful.
Forecast models show that the ridge bringing us the intense heat is expected to weaken and shift east heading into early next week.
That weakening not only promises some slight relief, but it also opens up a path for Erin to curve away from the U.S. East Coast.
This means that the high that’s baking us now, may be the very reason Erin isn’t at our doorstep next week.
The break in the Bermuda High acts like a steering lane for tropical systems, guiding hurricanes northward and then out to sea, a common escape route in late August when the jet stream begins to dip a bit farther south.
Florida Impacts
Even if Erin stays offshore, long-period swells will still reach the East Coast, especially along Florida’s Atlantic beaches, early next week. This will bring dangerous rip currents and rough surf, particularly around Daytona Beach, just as large outdoor events are ramping up.
If you’re headed to the coast, watch the beach flags, swim near lifeguards and avoid the water on red flag days, no matter how sunny it looks.