ORLANDO, Fla. – Fernand has dissipated, leaving the Atlantic basin for the most part empty.
As of Friday morning, we’re not tracking any active named storms or any disturbances currently over the ocean that could develop through the Labor Day weekend.
However, our attention remains on one of National Hurricane Center’s infamous yellow “blips,” as I like to call them, highlighting a future tropical wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on Sunday.
As of Friday morning, there is a 30% chance of development in the next seven days.
From there, it looks like there’s steady agreement among global computer models that something tropical will start to spin up.
The next name on the list is Gabrielle, and one hefty positive I want to pass along to you is that the general thinking keeps this feature away from Central Florida.
Naturally, I want to caution since we don’t have anything trackable on the board quite yet that things can maybe change here and there. But with the background weather pattern we have stretched across the Atlantic from our east coast across the tropics, it seems keeping a named storm away from Florida in the short-term is very doable.
But I also want to touch on what the remainder of September could look like.
We’re going to start by rewinding the clock and touching on a phenomena called the ocean-atmosphere coupling. The temperatures of our ocean waters affect far more than simply hurricane development and strength. It’s actually what’s costing us now from a gangbuster peak of the 2025 season.
We started the calendar year with much COOLER than average water temperatures extending off Africa and portions of southwest Europe into much of the tropics. To the north of this corner of the world, temperatures were SCORCHING. The central and north Atlantic were far above average.
This is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of what you’d want to see if you were to predict an active hurricane season.
We did manage to successfully flip this around by late June and especially July. Hurricane Erin also did a number on the warmer temperatures hugging the eastern U.S. shores and closer to Bermuda.
But, just like when the power goes out at home and your Wi-Fi connection takes about 30 seconds to reboot even after power is restored, there’s a delay.
The atmosphere is still behaving as if the setup from the start of 2025 was in play. It takes some time for that connection between Earth’s bodies of water and our weather-making atmosphere to sync back up again. So peak season will hinge heavily on what the Madden Julian Oscillation does to help give us a little nudge in the favorability department.
If you click the link above, I’ve got a crash course on all things MJO available for your situational awareness. I intend on revisiting this subject a bit more in-depth once we do get past the first of September and the approaching Labor Day weekend.
One other large portion of our tropical equation are the ENSO regions in the Pacific. This is where we watch for above or below average water temperatures to see if we’re headed for an El Nino or a La Nina. For the majority of this year, we’ve been right in between. Neutral ENSO conditions have persisted for the most part.
That’s also in the process of changing. We’re diving towards a weak La Nina, and Climate Prediction Center has a La Nina watch in affect.
Weather on our planet is dictated HEAVILY by temperatures. Thermodynamics is the fancy word we meteorologists will use, but when you feel wind outside, rain falling or clear skies, it’s all because the temperature calls for it.
So with cooling temperatures in the Pacific, and the warmth we’ve built up across the Atlantic, this should favor the Atlantic season for September, October and maybe early November.
Sounds pretty familiar, yeah? Kind of like 2024.
We’re thinking a back-loaded hurricane season is likely. Especially once the MJO swings back around the globe and postures over our ocean once again into the mid-sections of September. This is when things could get dicey, and we’ll be monitoring model trends and conditions to see when we start to find more things forming in the tropics.
Check back with your News 6 weather team on a regular basis for all things hurricane-season related. Take advantage of this lull to encourage friends and loved ones to revisit dialing in any preps you may have put off for the first half.
The half-time show will be ending soon, and the second half looks like it’ll perform similar to last year.