ORLANDO, Fla. – A tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa is showing early signs of organization and potential for development later this week.
As of Tuesday, the area of showers and storms was just south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
As the wave tracks further into the Atlantic, it will begin to move into more favorable conditions for it to become a tropical depression by mid to late week.
If that happens, it would be one of the first named systems to develop in the “main development region” of the Atlantic this season.
The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% chance of formation over the next 48 hours, but a 70% chance over the next seven days.
If it strengthens sooner, there’s a better chance it curves out to sea. Either way, this one is worth keeping a close eye on.
The next named storm will be called Gabrielle.
[VIDEO BELOW: Candace Campos’ forecast for Orlando area]
Second Half of Hurricane Season
Beyond this wave, there’s growing confidence that the second half of hurricane season is about to ramp up.
A developing La Niña pattern in the Pacific, combined with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving into a more favorable phase, is expected to boost tropical activity across the Atlantic in the coming weeks.
These two atmospheric drivers tend to reduce wind shear over the tropics, making it easier for storms to form and strengthen.
Make sure you don’t let your guard down, as about 75% of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes form after September 1.