ORLANDO, Fla. – This coming winter will likely have more violent and severe storms in Florida than the past several years.
It's all because of the El Nino effect that helped keep us hurricane-free this summer. This year's El Nino is set to be one of the strongest ever, in the same league as 1998 when 42 people were killed in Central Florida on one day by three EF3 tornadoes.
Out of the 15 deadliest tornadoes in Florida in the past 65 years, 11 developed during an El Nino year.
The National Weather Service says while predicting seasonal outlooks can be difficult, the correlation between a strong El Nino and major tornado outbreaks is unquestionable.
"We look back over the last seven years compared to the intensity we're seeing right now the correlation is very very high through these past events to follow up by the tornadoes across the Central Florida region during November and April" said Scott Sprat, a warning coordinating meteorologist at the local National Weather Service.
The El Nino effect begins in the eastern Pacific. Warm water there, like this year, shift the jetstream south over the southeast, allowing for a fast track for strong squall lines ahead of cold fronts to come right through Central Florida.
Making things worse, for reasons that meteorologists still don't completely understand, most of those terrible storms strike at night.
"During an El Niño year the majority of tornadoes that we see develop, tend to occur at night. It's not that they can't happen during the daytime but the higher percentage of them happen at night while people are sleeping," said Spratt.
The most recent deadly storm during an El Nino season was just 8 years ago on Groundhog Day. That's when a tornado outbreak killed 21 people in our area.
So how can residents get prepared ahead of the winter season?
"Very similar to hurricanes. You want to stay informed with multiple forms of communication. So if you have a NOAA radio you should also consider downloading a mobile app from your local station to get alerts," said Alan Harris an Emergency Manager for Seminole County.