Tracking the tropics: Invest 99 could threaten Florida by weekend

Tropical wave has 60 percent chance of development within next 5 days


ORLANDO, Fla. – All eyes are on the tropics as rain chances tick up in Central Florida and a tropical wave tracks toward Florida by the weekend.

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"As more moisture works into the atmosphere, rain chances will gradually increase for the rest of the week," News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said.

Rain chances will be at 40 percent from Wednesday through the weekend. Afternoon highs will near 90 degrees for the rest of the week.

Tracking the tropics

"We are pinpointing the latest on the tropics, and there are three systems to watch," Bridges said.

Earlier Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center issued their last update and advisory on Fiona, which is now a remnant. 

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gaston formed late Monday. It is poised to become a hurricane Wednesday.

"This storm will end up being quite large, but will never be a threat to Florida," said Chief Meteorologist Tom Sorrells. 

"Computer models are keeping it out to sea and away from Florida altogether," Bridges said. "In the coming days, there is a slight chance Gaston could impact Canada."

Then there's Invest 99.

Earlier Tuesday afternoon, a recon flight found winds 38 mph, lots of convection, but no center of circulation. So, for now, it remains an open wave and will retain its "Invest" status. Tropical models will continue to be run on the system. Another flight will go out Wednesday if it shows signs of development.

As of Tuesday, it has a 60 percent chance of development within the next five days.

The latest computer models continue to show it becoming a Tropical Storm in the next five days. Most of them bring it close, if not through, Florida in the next seven days. 

"The system will battle dry air, come interference from islands, and very little shear," Sorrells said. "It will be a few more days before we have a handle of the danger this system will bring, or if it will even survive. The models have been changing wildly from day to day. Until the center gets established, its very much a guessing game."

Some of the models curve it out to sea, while others bring it into Florida by the start of next workweek.

If it does become a tropical storm, it will be Tropical Storm Hermine.

"Stay tuned," Bridges said. "These models will definitely change."

Watch News 6 and stay with ClickOrlando.com for more on this story.

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