Tropics Tracker: Nice and quiet in the Atlantic

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico becomes location to watch for development mid to late June

Saharan dust
Saharan dust

ORLANDO, Fla. – Welcome back to Tropics Tracker. Every Thursday we’ll give you an in-depth look at what’s going on in the tropics for the duration of hurricane season.

Here you will find a lot of meteorology to dissect areas that can become favorable and break down steering currents when something is out there. There won’t be any hype here.

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Here’s a reminder as we venture through the season that the NOAA says could be busy.

Things to remember this hurricane season

Let’s get to it!

This season is off to a MUCH better start than last. Yes, we continued our pre-season streak with Ana developing last month, but it was a weak, inconsequential system that didn’t last long out in the middle of the Atlantic.

To this point, last year we were already to the “C” storm and two tropical storms, Bertha and Cristobal, had already made landfall in the U.S. The tropics currently are very quiet with limited thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic basin.

Next quick system?

A cold front exiting the east coast could spin up something tropical as it moves over the Atlantic off of the Carolina/Virginia coast. This would move AWAY from Florida, if it does in fact materialize.

Beyond the next five days

Thunderstorms will become more numerous in part to the Central American Gyre, a broad area of low pressure, that typically develops this time of the year over Central America. On occasion, clusters of storms get flung out into the Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico and develop into tropical systems.

The Central American Gyre is a broad area of low pressure that typically develops this time of year. This can be a source for tropical systems in both the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Pacific.

The Southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche will become favorable for development in the next seven to 10 days. The darker and more consolidated the color in the model below, the more the model is indicating a system.

The Central American Gyre could send out two systems, one on the Southern Gulf of Mexico and one in the Eastern Pacific over the next 7-10 days.

The Central America Gyre could also “spit” out a system in the Eastern Pacific.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Saharan dust rules the roost. We talked a lot about this last year as large plumes of dust emerged off of Africa. Dust plumes oftentimes come off of Africa in June or July with the dust becoming less prevalent during August and September.

Saharan dust helps to limit tropical development by drying out the atmosphere.


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