Tropics Tracker: Transitioning to more active times

Hurricane center watching a couple of waves in the Atlantic

Five day tropical development
Five day tropical development

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Atlantic isn’t primed and ready to go just yet, but it’s getting there.

We’ve been talking in the last few Tropical Trackers that the Atlantic has been the under the influence of large-scale weather features that tend to inhibit tropical development, but that would soon change.

That change is underway and by the middle of August, the Atlantic will be much more conducive for tropical development.

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, neither of which pose an immediate threat to Florida, but will be something to watch getting into next week.

The area where the two tropical waves are currently are in a relatively unfavorable environment (green, yellow).

Hurricane Index

The best environment for tropical systems (red, orange) resides in the eastern Caribbean and extreme southwest Atlantic, north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas.

As the disturbances move west, they will enter a more favorable environment. The Bermuda High will steer these disturbances west, with gradual development possible into next week.

Red equals stronger spin in the atmosphere

August begins the Cabo Verde season, when thunderstorms emerge off Africa and have a better chance for development as they trek across the Atlantic.

Even with a quiet July, the Atlantic is ahead of schedule when it comes to named storms.

Storm Names

Typically through this timeframe, we only see two named storms. To date, the Atlantic basin has seen five named storms, including one hurricane.

The bulk of tropical activity occurs in August and September.

July is typically a very quiet month in the tropics, with the exception of 2020.


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.