Chances of tropical development increase for potential disturbance in Gulf

Broad area of low pressure expected to develop by middle of week

Five Day Tropical Development (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Development chances have risen slightly for a broad area of low pressure expected to form near the Yucatan Peninsula.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Agatha made landfall as a strong category 2 hurricane Monday on the west coast of Mexico. Typically what happens in the Pacific is not noteworthy for the Atlantic basin, but Agatha’s remnants could play a role in Atlantic development late week.

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As Agatha moves inland over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, its remnants will become involved in a larger gyre, or large swirl near the Yucatan Peninsula. The hurricane itself will get completely torn apart over land.

Some gradual development is possible by the middle of the week of that eventual broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center has given it a 70% chance of developing, up from 30%, over the next five days.

The system, whether or not it develops, is expected to move slowly northeastward and could bring heavy rain to parts of Florida next weekend.

Forecasters reported that it is possible a tropical depression could for in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.

If the system were to develop, it would not keep its Eastern Pacific name Agatha because the low-level circulation would have likely been completely disrupted or destroyed with land interaction.

Alex is the first name of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1. The Atlantic basin consists of the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.