Here’s why the tropics remain nice and quiet

Saharan dust dominating the tropical Atlantic

Saharan dust surrounds Invest 97L. Development of this disturbance is no longer expected.

ORLANDO, Fla – Saharan dust has been the talk of the town since the start of hurricane season. The dry, dusty air has been one of the reasons for the tame hurricane season to date. The latest plume of dust that ejected off of the African continent has also brought hazy skies to most of Florida.

The dust is also responsible for gobbling up Invest 97 L, the tropical wave that previously had a low chance for development.

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Development chances are now at 0 percent.

This is the time of the year when we start to see a sharp increase in tropical activity, with the peak occurring Sep 10.

Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

Over the next seven to 10 days, however, the Atlantic is showing no real signs of flipping on the switch. Dry, stable air and wind shear will continue to be prolific in the tropics, especially in the main development region between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.

In terms of accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, the 2022 season to date has only generated a value of 2.8. The average ACE to date is 13. ACE measures the energy used by a tropical system during its lifetime.

Still, more than 80 percent of named storms occur after Aug. 11.

For the last two weeks of August, the overall weather pattern will start to become more conducive for more robust waves to move off of Africa. The pattern change will coincide with the peak of hurricane season through the first two weeks of September.


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.