Tropics Watch: Tropical disturbance could flirt with Florida

Caribbean could remain active through at least the middle of November

Tropical Development

ORLANDO, Fla. – Typically by this point, the Atlantic hurricane season is all but over. Development in November isn’t rare, but the amount of activity that is out there now and what could be coming is a little uncommon.

Thunderstorm activity will likely be prolific over South America and the eastern Caribbean over the weekend. As this broad complex of storms move out over the warm water of the Caribbean or southwest Atlantic, some slow tropical or subtropical development will be possible as it lifts north to northwest next week.

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A large upper low, cut off from the main jet stream, will dig into the extreme southwest Atlantic and eastern Caribbean and help to lift the broad disturbance north. The low could retrograde back toward the southeast U.S., lifting the disturbance with it.

Upper Level Pattern

This potential disturbance likely wouldn’t be able to get very strong. Both the disturbance and the low that will influence where the system goes have not come into view yet, so changes in its trajectory are probable.

Hurricane Lisa is poised to make landfall in Belize later Wednesday. Lisa became the 6th hurricane of the Atlantic season earlier Wednesday. The system could emerge into the Bay of Campeche after landfall, but likely would be sheared apart by a strong system moving out of the Plains.

Hurricane Martin also formed in the north Atlantic Wednesday morning. This will become a large, powerful extra-tropical storm in a few days as it merges with another weather system. This will gradually move toward Iceland and possibly the United Kingdom.

There are indications more tropical development will be possible in the Caribbean as conditions remain favorable.

Hurricane season ends Dec. 1.

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About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.