ORLANDO, Fla. – In an attempt to better showcase impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane, the National Hurricane Center is releasing a new forecast cone for the 2024 hurricane season.
Since 2002, the cone of uncertainty has been the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast for the center of a tropical system.
The purpose of the current forecast cone is to highlight where the center of the storm could track. The problem, however, is that impacts are always felt outside of the cone.
The new look will feature the cone fading out over land areas while overlaying the watches and warnings that are in effect. This is to showcase the hazards of the storm that extend far beyond the center.
The example from the National Hurricane Center uses Hurricane Ian’s forecast from the 2022 hurricane season. Note the added color to the state of Florida. Those were the watches in warnings in effect at the time of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast update.
2/1 at 9am: The National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) will be implementing a new experimental cone graphic beginning on or around August 15th 2024.
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) February 1, 2024
This experimental graphic will help better convey wind hazard risk inland in addition to coastal wind hazards. pic.twitter.com/pDkNiRoupx
Also note that the cone basically disappears over Florida, highlighting the hazards of the storm rather than the forecast path.
The previous cone only had watches and warnings along the coast.
The new experimental cone is expected to begin on or around Aug. 15.