ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Erin on Thursday continues to gain strength in the open Atlantic.
While its exact path remains uncertain, the storm is expected to become a powerful hurricane over the weekend.
Strengthening and Watching Closely
Erin continues to spin in the central tropical Atlantic, with sustained winds near 60 mph. Satellite imagery shows some ongoing development.
The environment around Erin is expected to become more favorable for strengthening over the next 24–48 hours. As the storm moves over warmer waters and experiences slightly lower wind shear, models indicate a window for rapid intensification beginning late Friday or Saturday. If that trend holds, Erin could become a major hurricane by early next week.
Erin is currently tracking west, but a turn to the west-northwest is expected soon. That motion should continue through the weekend. Then, as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge to the north, Erin is forecast to make the anticipated right turn toward the north-northeast.
Forecast models are in good agreement over the next few days, but beyond that, the track becomes less certain. Some models take Erin further east near Bermuda, while others suggest a path closer to the Bahamas or even the U.S. East Coast.
While it’s still too early to say if land areas will be directly affected, even without an official landfall, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along the Florida east coast.
Areas in the Southwestern Gulf
Meantime, a broad area of low pressure near the Yucatán Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and storms. This system is expected to move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later Thursday, where conditions are only marginally favorable for further development.
Any development would likely be short-lived, as the system is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday.
At this time, chances for development are at 20% over the next 48 hours.
Looking Ahead
As we approach the most active stretch of hurricane season, it’s important to stay weather-aware, especially with a potentially major hurricane developing in the Atlantic over the weekend.
Erin is still several days away from any possible interaction with land, but forecasts can shift and storms can strengthen quickly.
The next three named storms will be called Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto.