ORLANDO, Fla. – A tropical wave is stirring in the far eastern Atlantic with more expected to develop in the upcoming weeks.
The tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa this week remains a bit disorganized for now. But over the next few days it will have the opportunity to develop further.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next seven days. This means a tropical depression or even a storm could form late this week or over the weekend.
The next name on the list is Gabrielle.
At this point, the wave has not yet been labeled an “Invest,” which is the designation the NHC uses for systems it starts closely monitoring.
However, global forecast models show the system eventually taking a turn to the north well before approaching the U.S. East Coast. While that is good news for now, this system still needs to be watched closely as we move into the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Next 2 Weeks
According to the weekly update from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the quiet conditions across the tropical Atlantic are expected to become a bit more active in the next two weeks.
Part of this shift is due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern that influences global tropical activity. The MJO will begin pushing storm energy from the Pacific and back toward the Atlantic. This could help kick-start more organized tropical waves, especially as we approach mid- to late September.
Forecast models suggest we could see another potent tropical wave emerge from Africa during the second half of September, and the CPC has highlighted a 20% chance of development between September 10-16, and a 40% chance after September 17.
There’s also a chance that frontal boundaries dipping into the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico could serve as starting points for tropical development closer to home.
While the season has seen a bit of a lull, that likely will change soon. To put it into perspective, about 70% of tropical systems form after Sept. 1.