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NOAA Releases 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecasters predict below-average season

NOAA's 2026 hurricane season outlook (Copyright 2026 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday released their prediction for the 2026 hurricane season.

NOAA expects eight to 14 named storms, three to six of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three of those becoming major (at least Category 3 and 111 mph winds).

NOAA's 2026 hurricane season outlook (Copyright 2026 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

An average season consists of 14 named storms, seven becoming hurricanes, and three becoming major.

A strong El Niño is expected to drive the 2026 hurricane season.

Typically, El Niño lowers overall activity in the Atlantic basin during hurricane season thanks to stronger-than-normal upper-level wind shear. This helps to tear tropical systems apart.

I use the work NORMALLY strong here, because 2023 remains a prevalent outlier. However, when we see El Nino conditions observed in the Pacific, NORMALLY the Atlantic hurricane season is far more tame with a lot more systems recurving away from land due to weakened Bermuda high pressure. 2023 broke those rules and then some. (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

When it comes to El Niño itself, one of the strongest on record is possible later in the summer.

It’s important to note that even in a “slow” hurricane season, it only takes one storm to make it a bad year, and it is always important to be prepared.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.