ORLANDO, Fla. – Despite economic anxiety being on the rise, the nation isn’t poised for a recession, UCF economist Sean Snaith announced in his latest forecast.
However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be other changes.
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“It’s not easy being green, and it’s not easy trying to forecast the economy when trade policy changes on a seemingly daily basis,” Snaith wrote. “Despite uncertainty, the economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace.”
In his spring forecast for the state, Snaith revealed his predictions for what Florida residents can expect over the next few years.
Below are a few of these points:
- Economic Threats: Geopolitics, domestic policies and hurricanes are all still potential threats to Florida’s economy, though the foundations (i.e. tourism) are still solid.
- Economic Growth: By 2028, the state’s nominal GDP will exceed $2 trillion — a figure larger than that of many countries. That’s an increase of nearly 20% from last year.
- Economic Slowdown: Despite the GDP increase, the rate of growth will actually lower as the economy remains essentially at full employment. This means lower gains in terms of labor force and job growth.
- Biggest Sectors: The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth through 2028 are:
- Education and health services — 1.9%
- Leisure and hospitality — 1.5%
- Construction — 1.4%
- Financial services — 1.2%
- State and local government — 0.8%
- Higher Wages: Real personal income growth will average 2.9% through 2028, which is set to be slightly higher than the national rate.
That being said, economic impacts are set to vary from place to place within the Sunshine State. As a result, Snaith broke down his predictions across each of Florida’s metro areas.
For example, below are his forecasts for average annual wages in these areas:
| Metro Area | Per Capita Income (2025) | Per Capita Income (2028) | “Real” Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Coral - Ft. Myers | $70,800 | $81,400 | 7.9% |
| Crestview - Ft. Walton Beach - Destin | $75,700 | $87,400 | 8.6% |
| Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach | $61,700 | $70,600 | 7.8% |
| Ft. Lauderdale - Pompano Beach - Deerfield Beach | $74,600 | $86,300 | 8.8% |
| Gainesville | $57,500 | $66,100 | 7.7% |
| Homosassa Springs | $51,000 | $58,900 | 8.6% |
| Jacksonville | $69,600 | $79,800 | 7.6% |
| Lakeland - Winter Haven | $46,600 | $53,500 | 8.0% |
| Miami - Ft. Lauderdale - West Palm Beach | $88,200 | $102,600 | 9.4% |
| Miami - Miami Beach - Kendall | $78,800 | $92,300 | 10.1% |
| Naples - Immokalee - Marco Island | $145,700 | $168,800 | 8.8% |
| North Port - Sarasota - Bradenton | $80,300 | $92,400 | 8.1% |
| Ocala | $48,900 | $56,900 | 9.2% |
| Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford | $61,400 | $70,600 | 8.2% |
| Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville | $65,400 | $75,600 | 8.8% |
| Panama City | $56,700 | $64,500 | 6.8% |
| Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent | $61,100 | $69,400 | 6.8% |
| Port St. Lucie | $77,600 | $87,900 | 6.1% |
| Punta Gorda | $60,200 | $68,600 | 7.1% |
| Sebastian - Vero Beach | $114,800 | $131,900 | 7.9% |
| Sebring | $48,000 | $56,000 | 9.7% |
| Tallahassee | $60,800 | $69,100 | 6.8% |
| Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater | $68,200 | $78,100 | 7.5% |
| The Villages | $78,600 | $88,900 | 6.4% |
| West Palm Beach - Boca Raton - Boynton Beach | $122,400 | $141,200 | 8.5% |