Hurricane experts now predicting more storms in 2021

Now predicting 20 named storms

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Tuesday, July 6, 2021, at 5:50 p.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Tropical Storm Elsa in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Elsa is strengthening and could became a hurricane before making landfall along Florida's north Gulf coast. In addition to damaging winds and heavy rains, the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of life-threatening storm surges, flooding and isolated tornadoes, (NOAA via AP)
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Tuesday, July 6, 2021, at 5:50 p.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Tropical Storm Elsa in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Elsa is strengthening and could became a hurricane before making landfall along Florida's north Gulf coast. In addition to damaging winds and heavy rains, the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of life-threatening storm surges, flooding and isolated tornadoes, (NOAA via AP)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Fresh off of Tropical Storm Elsa impacting the Sunshine State, Colorado State University rereleased an update to its hurricane season forecast.

The university is now predicting 20 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. 4 of those storms are expected to become major hurricanes — category three or above. The increased forecast includes the five named storms that have already developed this season.

CSU hurricane season forecast update

The forecast has increased slightly with each update.

There is also an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. and Caribbean.

According to Colorado State University, the increased forecast is a result of:

  • Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic increasing to near or slightly above normal levels
  • The lack of El-Nino during the peak of hurricane season. El-Nino helps to suppress tropical developmeny
  • Very robust West African Monsoon season to date. Increases the intensity of tropical waves off of Africa
  • The development and intensification of Elsa

The next update from CSU and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will come in early August just prior to the peak of hurricane season.


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.