Tropics Tracker: Tropics take a break behind Elsa

Activity could pick back up again in late July, early August

Tropical satellite

ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County Florida Thursday before noon. The tropics will quiet down considerably behind the earliest fifth named storm on record.

There is one area highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, an area of low pressure right on the coast of Texas. This system has been bringing the Lone Star state heavy rain and flooding for days. The system itself has a 0% chance to develop because it is expected to remain over land.

A quiet stretch coming

After a relatively active stretch that saw a few tropical waves, one of them eventually becoming Elsa, roll off of Africa, much of the Atlantic will enter a suppressed phase.

This doesn’t mean a storm or two isn’t possible over the next few weeks, but by and large, the Atlantic will be relatively quiet. Large scale sinking air (brown) will overspread the basin through at least the third week of July.

Green represents rising air, brown represents sinking air, less favorable for thunderstorm development

Thunderstorm activity increases when rising motion (green) is present.

In addition, another round of Saharan dust is emerging off of the African continent which will also help to keep the tropics at bay for now.

Saharan Dust

Late in July and early August, thunderstorm activity looks to increase again in the tropical Atlantic, increasing the potential for an active peak season.

Let’s enjoy the break!


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.