ORLANDO, Fla. – The tropics are already bubbling on the first day of the 2022 hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday continues to track an area of interest east of Florida and a tropical wave that could impact Central Florida over the weekend.
A large area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeast into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Peninsula.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
The NHC said there’s a 80% chance of tropical development over the next two days and an 80% chance over the next five days.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough located about 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it interacts with an upper-level trough.
Surface pressures are currently high across the area and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeast over the next several days, away from the southeastern United States.
The NHC said there’s a 10% chance of development over the next five days.
The first two named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be called Alex and Bonnie.