Tropical tossup: Models differ on how area in tropics could impact Central Florida

2 tropical models paint very different pictures

Model Comparison: GFS vs EURO

Orlando, FLA. – With the official start of hurricane season a day away, we are watching an area in the tropics for development this week that could play a role in our first weekend of the season.

Tropical development update

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean sea. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 80% chance of development over the next five days, and a 80% chance over the next 48 hours.

While this zone begins to organize, added instability and moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha will also be a factor.

Agatha, in the Eastern Pacific, made landfall as a major hurricane Monday on the west coast of Mexico and has weakened over land. Typically what happens in the Pacific is not noteworthy for Florida, but that changes if those remnants cross into the Atlantic Basin.

Florida impacts

As development chances go up, Florida may have a weak tropical system nearby this weekend.

We look to our tropical models for a view into the future, but they paint a different picture for Central Florida.

Model Comparison: GFS vs EURO

European (ECMWF) model

The latest Euro run shows a possible tropical storm tracking toward the Florida Gulf Coast by the weekend. With this scenario, rainfall models are showing accumulations in upwards of 3-5 inches of rain for Central Florida.

American GFS model

On the other side of the coin, the GFS continues to keep a weaker area of low pressure south of Florida and into the Florida straits.

With this projection, our rainfall would be limited, with just a trace of rain over the weekend.

Rain Model Comparison: Euro vs GFS

Will it be called Agatha or Alex?

Since Agatha lost its center of circulation over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico, if the remnants develop enough to become a named storm, it will NOT regain the “Agatha” name. Instead, it will take the first name on the list for the Atlantic Basin, which would be Alex.

Stay informed, be prepared

We will continue to keep you updated as we go through the week, as it is still too early to tell what exactly is going to happen.

But this is a good reminder that the Florida’s Disaster Preparedness sales tax holiday is currently running through June 10. Click here to see what supplies qualify, and some NEW items that have been added this year.

About the Author:

Candace Campos joined the News 6 weather team in 2015.